Technology

We Need to Talk About Envy

When a newspaper tells you how to hate someone, it reveals more about itself than its target.


Article #462

“Envy was once considered to be one of the seven deadly sins before it became one of the most admired virtues under its new name, ‘social justice’.”

Thomas Sowell, The Quest for Cosmic Justice (1999) [1]

Last week the New Zealand Herald reported, plainly, that Elon Musk had become the world’s first trillionaire after shares in SpaceX leapt as much as 30% on debut, the largest initial public offering in history. [2,3] That is the news. What happened next is the story.

Canada’s Globe and Mail ran an opinion piece under the headline: ‘SpaceX IPO makes Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Here’s how to properly hate him.’ After a day of ridicule, the paper swapped it for the more respectable ‘Is that a bad look for capitalism?’ and tacked on a note conceding the original ‘did not meet The Globe’s editorial standard.’ [4] The mask slipped, then was hastily refitted. But we all saw the face beneath.

Closer to home, the chorus is familiar. Oxfam Aotearoa tells us four New Zealand billionaires hold more wealth than 1.8 million of their countrymen, and calls it ‘obscene.’ [5] Academics line up on talkback to lament inequality. Polls are cited showing most New Zealanders want the ultra-rich taxed more, and we are reminded that Musk alone is worth almost as much as every New Zealander combined [6,7]. The sentiment is always the same: someone has too much, and that is a problem to be corrected rather than a phenomenon to be understood.

Musk is not, in fact, the first trillionaire. Under Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe's central bank printed a hundred-trillion-dollar note that on its first day was worth about US$30, and within weeks nothing at all; at the peak, prices doubled every day [8]. In that sense, many Zimbabweans became trillionaires on paper yet still could not buy a loaf of bread. That is the distinction worth dwelling on.

A trillion earned by building what people want is the opposite of a trillion conjured by a collapsing state: one is value created, the other value destroyed.

I want to make the unfashionable case. Not for Musk the man, he hardly needs my help, but for what the exception represents: the rare individual who turns the stuff of science fiction into things we use every day without a second thought, the smartphone in your pocket, the satellite that carries your call, the online payment that clears in seconds, the electric car at the lights, the cloud software that runs the small business down the road.

Consider the funnel. Many people have ideas. Fewer act on them. Fewer still build something that turns a profit. And a vanishingly small number, statistical outliers, take an idea and deliver it at scale. New Zealand has produced our own precious few: the Mowbray siblings, whose toy and consumer-goods firm Zuru, started in a shed in 2003, now tops the Rich List at an estimated $20 billion; Trade Me, Xero, Rocket Lab, the family-owned Gallagher Group, which grew from a Waikato farm shed and the world's first electric fence into a security firm operating in some 160 countries, and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, built and headquartered here and exporting respiratory care to around 120 countries [9,10,11].

And the same pattern holds inside the companies we reduce too easily to a single famous name. Gwynne Shotwell joined SpaceX as its eleventh employee in 2002 and helped build it, as president, into the company that just floated; she now sits, according to Forbes, among the richest self-made women in the world, with a stake estimated at around US$2.5 billion [12]. The builders are plural, and the rewards often follow competence more than celebrity.

Here is the part the zero-sum brigade often misses: the same SpaceX listing that minted the world's first trillionaire also turned more than 4,400 current and former staff into millionaires, by the New York Times' reckoning – some 400 of them past the $100 million mark. The reach went a long way down the org chart. One was a welder who joined in 2015 on about US$28 an hour and took part of his pay in stock; his holding is now worth close to a million dollars [13]. The trillionaire headline and the newly wealthy welder came from the very same event. The pie did not get carved up. It got bigger.

The question for New Zealand is whether we are willing to learn from that. The NBR Rich List has swelled 23-fold in forty years to a record $129 billion, with Rocket Lab's Sir Peter Beck alone leaping from about $650 million to $11 billion in a single year as his company's shares soared [14]. And yet our productivity has barely moved in thirty years. We are very good at debating how to carve the pie, and strangely uninterested in baking a larger one.

None of this is new. Andrew Carnegie and John D. Rockefeller were the titans of their age, reviled in their time as robber barons, cartoonish villains of the popular press. The cartoonists drew them as bloated octopuses with the nation in their tentacles. Carnegie ground out his fortune in steel and, in his later years, gave most of it away, seeding free public libraries across the world, more than 2,500 of them, eighteen in New Zealand alone [15]. Rockefeller's money built the University of Chicago and funded the medical research that helped tame yellow fever and hookworm [16]. The resentment faded. The libraries, the universities, the cures remain. That is the part the wreckers never see: the wealth was temporary, but the institutions it built endured, and we are still drawing on them a century later.

Great fortunes gather, they crest, and in time they disperse through families, philanthropy, taxation and the simple passage of generations. Marriages fail and children inherit and quarrel; fortunes fracture along fault lines no one planned for. Jeff Bezos parted with roughly a quarter of his Amazon stake in a single divorce [17]. Wealth scatters faster than any succession plan can contain it. No one takes it with them. They are only ever the custodian of their wealth for the span of their life, and perhaps a generation or two beyond, if they are fortunate.

I make the same point to those who fret about foreigners buying New Zealand farms and businesses. A buyer cannot pack up a farm, or a company, and carry it home in a box to their country of origin. The land stays. The business stays. The jobs, the buildings and the economic activity all remain here, in New Zealand. The buyer is a custodian, nothing more. So too with the great fortunes: the enterprises outlast the individual, and we are the beneficiaries.

And here is what the envious rarely pause to weigh: the cost of building any of it. The outlier does not arrive at scale by working office hours. Musk's own biographers record the toll: Walter Isaacson, who shadowed him for years, documents a leader hands-on in redesigning rocket components and welding design to production, while Ashlee Vance describes the hundred-hour weeks and nights spent sleeping on factory floors [18,19]. He risked ruin, repeatedly; Tesla and SpaceX both came within weeks of collapse in 2008, and he poured in his own money to keep them breathing. For every founder who makes it, a great many do not: they mortgage the house, burn the savings, lose the marriage, and end up with nothing but the lesson. Most of us, honestly, would not want that life if it were handed to us, and that is no shame. But it ought to buy a little humility before we throw stones over the fence at grass we have decided, from a distance, must be greener.

Some will say the fortune was really built on government largesse: the contracts, the green credits [20]. But the credits were no handout. Every carmaker operated under the same zero-emission rules; the money came from rival manufacturers who lagged on electric cars, not from the taxpayer; and Tesla profited simply because it built cleaner cars faster than anyone else. The same scheme runs in Europe and China. That is not a subsidy. That is winning the game everyone was playing.

As for the calls to tax such people into their place, success is already taxed, and handsomely. That is how it works. But a culture that treats achievement as a crime to be punished rather than a feat to be studied will get less of it. The numbers bear it out: resentment is not a growth strategy.

There is a fiduciary truth in all of this, the same one I return to with clients. Tearing others down builds nothing. The job, mine, yours, the nation’s, is stewardship: to grow what we are given, to think in decades rather than headlines, and to leave more behind than we found. A country that celebrates its builders is a healthier place than one that polices its winners. Glass half full beats glass half empty, every time.

So before we are told, yet again, how to properly hate someone for the sin of succeeding, it is worth asking the more useful question. Not how do we cut them down to size, but what will we leave standing when we are gone?

Winter never lasts; the snows always melt.


Nick Stewart

(Ngāi Tahu, Ngāti Huirapa, Ngāti Māmoe,
Ngāti Waitaha)

Financial Adviser and CEO at Stewart Group

  • Stewart Group is a Hawke's Bay and Wellington based CEFEX & BCorp certified financial planning and advisory firm providing personal fiduciary services, Wealth Management, Risk Insurance & KiwiSaver scheme solutions.

  • The information provided, or any opinions expressed in this article, are of a general nature only and should not be construed or relied on as a recommendation to invest in a financial product or class of financial products. You should seek financial advice specific to your circumstances from a Financial Adviser before making any financial decisions. A disclosure statement can be obtained free of charge by calling 0800 878 961 or visit our website, www.stewartgroup.co.nz


REFERENCES

  1. Thomas Sowell, The Quest for Cosmic Justice (1999), source of the epigraph.

  2. New Zealand Herald, ‘Elon Musk becomes world’s first trillionaire as SpaceX shares jump’ (June 2026).

  3. RNZ, ‘SpaceX launches US$2 trillion market debut, the largest IPO in history’ (June 2026).

  4. The Globe and Mail, Chris Gay, ‘SpaceX IPO makes Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Here’s how to properly hate him’ (headline since amended with editor’s note, June 2026).

  5. Oxfam Aotearoa, statement on billionaire wealth concentration in New Zealand (2026).

  6. RNZ / Talbot Mills poll, ‘New Zealanders support more taxes on ultra-rich, new poll shows’ (Wellbeing Economy Alliance Aotearoa; 68% backed higher taxes on the ultra-rich, 2026).

  7. RNZ, ‘Elon Musk only marginally less wealthy than all New Zealanders combined’ (June 2026).

  8. Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe / BBC, the Z$100 trillion note, issued 16 January 2009, worth about US$30 on its first day; one of history’s worst hyperinflations, with prices doubling daily at the November 2008 peak.

  9. Zuru / NBR Rich List 2026, founded by Nick, Mat and Anna Mowbray in 2003; estimated at $20b, the top spot on the 2026 NBR Rich List.

  10. Gallagher Group, Hamilton-based, family-owned; from the world’s first electric fence (1938) to integrated security solutions in around 160 countries.

  11. Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, New Zealand-headquartered respiratory-care manufacturer; sells in around 120 countries, with roughly 1% of revenue from domestic sales (publicly listed; majority institutional ownership).

  12. Forbes, ‘America’s Richest Self-Made Women’ (2026 list), featuring SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell.

  13. The New York Times, reporting via Hill.com analysis that SpaceX’s IPO would turn more than 4,400 employees into millionaires, including a welder hired in 2015 (June 2026).

  14. NBR Rich List 2026, 40th edition; total listed wealth a record $129b (up from $102.1b), a 23-fold rise in 40 years; Rocket Lab’s Sir Peter Beck up from ~$650m to ~$11b (reported via RNZ / NZ Herald / Scoop, June 2026).

  15. Carnegie Corporation of New York, historical record of Carnegie free public library endowments.

  16. Rockefeller Foundation / University of Chicago, record of Rockefeller’s ~$36m founding gift to the University of Chicago and Foundation-led campaigns against hookworm and yellow fever (first yellow-fever vaccine, 1935).

  17. Bezos / Scott divorce (2019), widely reported transfer of roughly a quarter of Jeff Bezos’ Amazon stake to MacKenzie Scott.

  18. Walter Isaacson, Elon Musk (2023), on Musk’s hands-on engineering role across his companies.

  19. Ashlee Vance, Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future (2015), on the 100-hour weeks and factory-floor work ethic.

  20. RNZ, ‘How much of Elon Musk’s wealth comes from government help? Virtually all of it’ (June 2026), cited here as the claim being answered; on ZEV regulatory credits, see the Union of Concerned Scientists and CNBC explainers (credits are traded between automakers, not paid by the taxpayer).


IMAGE CREDITS

  • John D. Rockefeller depicted in the political cartoon 'The Trust Giant's Point of View' by Horace Taylor in 'The Verdict, ' 1900

  • “Standard Oil Octopus” - Keppler, Udo J., 1872-1956, artist. Published September 1904

  • Carnegie Free Library, Thames - Coromandel Heritage Trust. Photograph by David Wilton.

  • Auckland City Libraries – Tāmaki Pātaka Kōrero, Sir George Grey Special Collections (AWNS-19080716-13-6)

The Era of the Colossal IPO, and the Small Investor

Article #461

In August 1602, the Dutch East India Company pinned up posters in Amsterdam announcing that any resident of the Low Countries could buy a share in their new venture. By month's end, 1143 investors had put in roughly 6.4 million guilders. One was a maid named Neeltgen Cornelis. She put in 100 guilders, around half a guilder a day in wages, more than half a year's earnings. The world's first IPO had its first ordinary shareholder.

Four centuries later the dance is the same, but the music is louder. Within 12 months we'll likely see the three largest technology listings in history, landing one after another.

SpaceX lists on the Nasdaq today under SPCX, in what is set to be the largest IPO in history. The company has raised USD 75 billion, pricing 555.6 million shares at USD 135 each, at a valuation approaching USD 2 trillion. For context, the previous record-holder, Saudi Aramco in 2019, raised USD 29.4 billion. Retail orders alone reportedly exceeded USD 100 billion. Elon Musk retains 85 percent of the voting control and stands on the verge of becoming the world's first trillionaire. Roughly 30 percent of the offer has been earmarked for retail through Robinhood, Schwab, Fidelity, E*Trade and SoFi, an unusually generous allocation designed to put ordinary investors at the front of the queue from day one.

The mechanics deserve a look. The raise implies a free float in the low single digits, perhaps three to four percent of the company. The retail offer is distributed through institutions including Goldman Sachs as lead, with Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan in support. Musk's 85 percent voting control comes through a dual-class structure that the New York and California state pension funds have publicly criticised as 'extreme'.

The numbers behind the headline are sobering. SpaceX posted a Q1 2026 net loss of USD 4.3 billion on revenue of USD 4.69 billion. The Connectivity unit (Starlink) made USD 1.19 billion, while the Space unit lost USD 619 million and the AI unit lost USD 2.5 billion.

Starlink is single-handedly carrying the company.

The S-1 also claims a USD 28.5 trillion total addressable market, and includes a vesting condition for 1 billion of Musk's performance shares that requires SpaceX to establish a permanent human colony on Mars with at least 1 million inhabitants. This is a remuneration trigger.

OpenAI is queueing up directly behind. The ChatGPT maker confidentially filed in late May at a USD 852 billion valuation, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading, targeting a September quarter listing. But there is a tell. The Wall Street Journal reports CFO Sarah Friar has told colleagues the company may need more time, while CEO Sam Altman has been eager to push ahead. The CFO, the person responsible for the numbers, is the one urging caution. OpenAI has reportedly missed multiple internal revenue and user targets, and its lead is now under threat from Anthropic, whose tools are being adopted across the workforce at pace. OpenAI is going public partly because it needs to, having committed more than USD 1.4 trillion to physical infrastructure. The phrase 'stolen a charity', used by Musk in the recently dismissed trial alleging OpenAI improperly converted from a nonprofit research lab, will hang over the prospectus regardless of the verdict. Anthropic is preparing its own listing.

Three deals, perhaps USD 200 billion of equity issuance, in a single year. As a fiduciary, not as a fan of rockets or large language models, my answer is the same as it would have been to a client asking about the South Sea Company in 1720. Probably not, and almost certainly not at the open.

The unromantic data

Jay Ritter at the University of Florida, known in finance circles as 'Mr IPO', has been cataloguing initial public offerings since 1980. US IPOs have, on average, trailed the broader market by roughly two percentage points a year over the three years after listing. Almost two thirds underperform.

Dimensional Fund Advisors found the same in a study of more than 6,000 US IPOs from 1991 to 2018. Dimensional's response is instructive. Their funds deliberately wait, sitting out the first year or so after a listing so that the early froth settles, the lock-ups expire, and at least one to two years of audited public-company financials accumulate before they buy. Dull, patient, and on the evidence, profitable.

Read Dimensional’s study HERE.

Two New Zealand parables

We do not have to travel to Starbase, Texas for the lesson. Two recent local listings sit at opposite ends of the IPO spectrum.

Napier Port listed in August 2019 at $2.60 a share, rose sharply on debut, touched $4.28 by year-end, and today trades in the low $3 range with a steady dividend stream. Not spectacular, but it is what a 150-year-old infrastructure business with predictable cargo volumes is supposed to look like. Decades of audited accounts. A board that knew what it owned. A business you can model on the back of an envelope.

My Food Bag tells the other story. It listed in March 2021 at $1.85, the largest New Zealand IPO by amount raised since 2014. The prospectus glittered. Retail investors, including many existing customers, were warmly invited. The shares fell on day one and kept falling. Today they trade around 29 cents, an 85 percent loss for anyone who bought at issue. A classic private equity exit, with the existing owners taking $51 million in repaid shareholder loans and a $7.1 million pre-listing dividend off the table on the way out. The question not asked loudly enough was the only one that mattered: who is selling, and why now?

The fiduciary filter

Three principles we keep returning to when a client asks about a hot IPO. First, wait for the audited financials. The Dimensional approach of holding off until at least two years of statutory accounts exist as a listed entity is not market timing, it is risk management. Pre-IPO numbers are produced under different incentives.

Second, read who is selling. Founders and venture funds with five-year-old positions do not list out of generosity. Lock-up provisions and use of proceeds tell you more than the forward revenue projection. Third, recognise the window. Ritter's research shows IPOs cluster in optimistic markets and underperform most when issued in those hot windows. Three trillion-dollar AI and aerospace deals queued up in a single year is the textbook definition.

And so, to Amsterdam

Neeltgen Cornelis did rather well. The VOC paid its first dividend in 1610, mostly in spices, and continued paying for the better part of two centuries. But she bought into a business with existing ships, warehouses, a 21-year charter and a recognisable revenue model.

She was not buying a million Martians.

The colossal IPOs of 2026 may yet reward their early shareholders handsomely. Some will. Most, on the historical evidence, will not. When the noise gets loud, seek advice and wise counsel.

Or, if you prefer the older formulation - ask the person who has read the prospectus three times and is still not buying.


Nick Stewart

(Ngāi Tahu, Ngāti Huirapa, Ngāti Māmoe,
Ngāti Waitaha)

Financial Adviser and CEO at Stewart Group

  • Stewart Group is a Hawke's Bay and Wellington based CEFEX & BCorp certified financial planning and advisory firm providing personal fiduciary services, Wealth Management, Risk Insurance & KiwiSaver scheme solutions.

  • The information provided, or any opinions expressed in this article, are of a general nature only and should not be construed or relied on as a recommendation to invest in a financial product or class of financial products. You should seek financial advice specific to your circumstances from a Financial Adviser before making any financial decisions. A disclosure statement can be obtained free of charge by calling 0800 878 961 or visit our website, www.stewartgroup.co.nz


REFERENCES

  1. Bloomberg Evening Briefing Americas, 11 June 2026, 'The world's first almost-trillionaire'. SpaceX priced 555.6 million shares at USD 135 each, raising USD 75 billion. Retail orders reportedly exceeded USD 100 billion.

  2. Bloomberg Evening Briefing Americas, 20 May 2026, 'SpaceX Files Publicly for Nasdaq IPO Under Symbol SPCX'.

  3. The Economist, World in Brief, 21 May 2026, 'SpaceX reaches for the stars'.

  4. Morning Brew, 21 May 2026, 'SpaceX shows its finances and future in IPO filing'. SpaceX S-1 prospectus, 20 May 2026: Q1 2026 revenue USD 4.69 billion, net loss USD 4.3 billion; Musk 85 percent voting control; Mars 1 million inhabitants vesting condition; total addressable market claim USD 28.5 trillion; retail distribution via Robinhood, Schwab, Fidelity, E*Trade, SoFi.

  5. BusinessDesk (WSJ syndication), 21 May 2026, 'OpenAI is preparing to file for an IPO very soon'. CFO Sarah Friar reportedly told colleagues OpenAI may need more time; Anthropic growing faster on workforce tool adoption.

  6. CNBC and Wall Street Journal, 20 May 2026, 'OpenAI to confidentially file for IPO as soon as Friday', valuation USD 852 billion.

  7. Ritter, J.R., 'Initial Public Offerings: Underpricing', 1980 to 2025 dataset, University of Florida, Warrington College of Business.

  8. Black, S. and Green, K., 'IPOs: Profiles Are High. What About Returns?', Dimensional Fund Advisors, 2019, study of 6,000+ US IPOs 1991 to 2018.

  9. RNZ, 'Will your My Food Bag investment ever recover?', May 2025.

  10. NZX disclosures, Napier Port Holdings (NPH) and My Food Bag Group (MFB), historical share data.

  11. Worldsfirststockexchange.com, Dutch National Archives, VOC charter 20 March 1602, Article 10.

The GDP Trap: Why Technology Sceptics Keep Getting It Wrong

Article #457 - A Canny View on Capital, Productivity and the AI Moment

I was in Wellington last month, watching my son play rugby. Between the lineouts, the bagpipes, and the cheering crowds, I found myself deep in conversation with some of the opposing team's parents (as you do). One of them, it turned out, reads this column. She'd been listening to a podcast during the week and wanted to pick my brain on something that had been bothering her: the idea that technology, the internet, and now AI doesn't move the needle on GDP. Was I convinced? Did I think AI would go the same way?

I told her I'd think about it properly and write it up. So here we are.

The argument is that the internet failed to shift GDP. Productivity growth stayed stubbornly flat through the digital revolution, and AI will likely disappoint in the same way.

Tidy. Plausible. But - wrong.

Start with the measure itself. GDP is the bluntest instrument in the economist's toolkit. It counts what gets transacted, not what gets created. It captures the volume of economic activity, but not the quality of the decisions that drive it. It has no mechanism for measuring time saved, stress reduced, options expanded or freedom gained. Judging technological progress through GDP alone guarantees you miss the point entirely.

Economist Robert Solow noticed this as far back as 1987, when he observed that the computer age appeared everywhere except in the productivity statistics – a phenomenon that became known as the Solow Productivity Paradox.¹ History eventually proved him right, just on a longer lag than the critics expected. Technology hadn’t failed. GDP was simply a poor timekeeper.

Technology is an enabler, not a product

Take the motor vehicle. The combustion engine restructured how people moved, how goods flowed, and how entire societies organised themselves. The GDP figures didn't move immediately in response to this technological feat. Infrastructure had to be built. Habits had to change. Supply chains had to be reimagined, and entirely new industries – fuel, insurance, hospitality, suburban housing – had to emerge. But once those conditions were in place, the uplift was extraordinary. We produced and shipped volumes of goods that would have been incomprehensible to the previous generation. The technology compressed time, distance and cost simultaneously, and returned something more valuable than efficiency: freedom. Freedom of movement, of choice, of attention. We enjoy freedoms our grandparents couldn't have imagined, and GDP only partially accounts for why.² The full value of what technology returns to human life has always been larger than what the national accounts can see.

The internet followed the same pattern: in its infancy, productivity statistics disappointed. Critics pointed to flat lines - exactly the lines we hear cited about AI today. Sceptics declared the revolution oversold. Then, suddenly, everything changed.

Amazon didn't just create a retail channel. It rewrote the rules of commerce, warehousing, logistics and consumer expectation. Google didn't just organise information, it fundamentally altered how knowledge was accessed and shared. The internet became the incubation platform for industries that couldn't previously exist: the gig economy, streaming, fintech, e-commerce, social media, and the vast ecosystem of software-as-a-service that now underpins nearly every business on the planet.³

GDP followed. It always does, eventually - the error is expecting it to lead.

Which brings us to AI, and the real question…

Transformation, or novelty?

The evidence points firmly to the former. AI is not an application. It is infrastructure. Just as the internet built a platform beneath entire industries, AI is now embedding itself beneath every workflow, every decision, every process across every sector simultaneously. Its speed of adoption is faster than any previous general-purpose technology, reaching 100 million users in months rather than the decades it took electricity or the telephone to achieve comparable penetration. The McKinsey Global Institute estimates AI could add between $13 and $22 trillion to the global economy annually by 2030, with generative AI alone contributing $2.6 to $4.4 trillion across industries each year.⁴

Businesses dismissing it as a "nice to have" remind me of Spencer Johnson's parable, “Who Moved My Cheese?”⁵ It describes how those who refuse to adapt are left behind not through any single dramatic moment, but through the slow, steady movement of the world around them. The cheese has moved. It is moving right now. Yet, some are still debating whether it will move at all.

For those of us who allocate capital on behalf of clients, this is not an abstract debate. It is a practical and urgent one, and it cuts to the heart of how we should think about investment discipline in a period of structural change.

History will likely repeat… eventually.

The data clearly tells us that active managers – those who believe they can outthink the market, pick winners and time the turns – have a consistently poor record of doing so. The SPIVA Scorecard, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, shows that over a 15-year period, nearly 90% of active fund managers underperform their benchmark index.⁶

Across global markets, including Australia and New Zealand, the findings are consistent. The crystal ball is no clearer in professional hands than in the layman's. The complexity of markets, the speed of information and the weight of costs conspire to make consistent outperformance not merely difficult but statistically improbable.

A robust, evidence-based framework protects clients from the most persistent and costly mistakes in investing: reacting to noise, chasing narratives, and confusing confidence with competence.

Understanding AI and its long-term implications is not about picking technology stocks or timing a wave – that’s where you can get into trouble, à la NFTs and other failed hype stocks.

It is instead about recognising when the world is changing structurally, and ensuring that clients are positioned to participate in the full arc of that change over time – through diversified, low-cost and disciplined portfolios. The opportunity is not in predicting which companies win, but in making sure clients are in the game when the GDP finally catches up – because eventually, it will.

The woman I spoke with in Wellington already sensed this. She wasn't asking whether AI was real. She was asking whether the people managing her money understood it well enough to make sound decisions on her behalf – which is exactly the right question to be asking.

Technology enables. Capital follows. The data has never told us otherwise. The sceptics may be right on timing, but history suggests they are wrong on direction.


Nick Stewart

(Ngāi Tahu, Ngāti Huirapa, Ngāti Māmoe,
Ngāti Waitaha)

Financial Adviser and CEO at Stewart Group

  • Stewart Group is a Hawke's Bay and Wellington based CEFEX & BCorp certified financial planning and advisory firm providing personal fiduciary services, Wealth Management, Risk Insurance & KiwiSaver scheme solutions.

  • The information provided, or any opinions expressed in this article, are of a general nature only and should not be construed or relied on as a recommendation to invest in a financial product or class of financial products. You should seek financial advice specific to your circumstances from a Financial Adviser before making any financial decisions. A disclosure statement can be obtained free of charge by calling 0800 878 961 or visit our website, www.stewartgroup.co.nz


REFERENCES

  1. Solow, R. (1987). We'd better watch out. New York Times Book Review. The observation, "you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics", gave rise to what economists termed the Solow Productivity Paradox.

  2. Crafts, N. (2004). Steam as a General Purpose Technology: A Growth Accounting Perspective. Economic Journal. Documents the long lag between transformative technology adoption and measurable economic uplift, a pattern repeated across industrial revolutions.

  3. Brynjolfsson, E. & McAfee, A. (2014). The Second Machine Age. W.W. Norton & Company. Argues that digital technology's economic impact was systematically underestimated because GDP fails to capture consumer surplus and free digital goods.

  4. McKinsey Global Institute (2023). The Economic Potential of Generative AI. McKinsey & Company. Estimates generative AI could add $2.6 to $4.4 trillion annually across industries, with broader AI contributing $13–$22 trillion by 2030.

  5. Johnson, S. (1998). Who Moved the Cheese? G.P. Putnam's Sons. A business parable on adaptability and the cost of resisting inevitable change.

  6. S&P Dow Jones Indices (2026). SPIVA U.S. Scorecard, Year-End 2025. Over a 15-year horizon, 90% of large-cap active managers underperformed the S&P 500. Consistent findings are reported across global markets including Australia and New Zealand.