Crypto operates on the greater fool theory. Because it has little real world use currently, investors are buying it on the premise that they will be able to find someone down the line willing to buy it off them – the greater fool, or some optimist who believes they have found their own golden ticket.
There’s an ironic certainty to the Cup, given the pony-picking premise. We know that it’ll happen every year on the first Tuesday of November (not even COVID could stop it, though it did keep the fans at home last year). Beyond that there are so many variables for the punters – weights, age, barrier draws, recent form, the race distance, the weather and the state of the track.
If you’re trying to pick stocks, the options are just as bewildering.
One of the staples of investment media and stock picking newsletters are the ‘if you had invested…” stories. The writer will pick a well-known stock, go back to a point in time (usually the IPO) and inform us how many millions we would have today, if only we had invested a specific dollar amount into that stock. It’s meant to make us feel like fools for not jumping aboard at the right time.
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