As we close the books on another eventful year, I want to share some final reflections before I put away my pen and keyboard for a well-earned break.
The Year That Was
2025 has been a masterclass in the unpredictable nature of markets.
We began the year with President Trump's inauguration and the subsequent tariff theatre that sent shockwaves through global markets in March and April. Despite a sharp -19% drawdown that tested even the most seasoned investors' resolve, global equity markets have delivered another year of above-average returns.
It's a powerful reminder that short-term turbulence is simply the price we pay for long-term prosperity.
The Dog in the Kennel
While many global markets have been out having fun (celebrating AI breakthroughs, peace deals, and strong returns) our New Zealand market has been in the kennel, watching the party from afar. It's been a challenging period for local investors who've seen the disparity between domestic and international performance grow increasingly stark.
Yet – every dog has its day. Recent economic data suggests our dog might be stirring. The balance of trade is looking favourable, and commodity markets for our protein exports remain strong.
These are the foundations that future returns are built upon. Markets move in cycles, and what seems forgotten can suddenly become fashionable again. The New Zealand market won't stay in the kennel forever. Patient investors who maintain diversified portfolios will be positioned to benefit when our local market eventually has its turn in the sun.
Three Lessons Worth Keeping
First, overvalued markets can still grow. The commentators warning about stretched valuations at the start of the year weren't wrong about the numbers; they were just wrong about what those numbers meant for forward returns. Valuation tells us little about timing, and waiting for the "perfect" entry point often means missing out entirely.
Second, knowing what will happen doesn't tell you how markets will react. The tariff announcements in April proved this brilliantly. Everyone knew they were coming, yet the market's bottom came not when clarity arrived, but when uncertainty was at its absolute peak. This is why we plan rather than predict.
Third, long-term planning beats short-term prediction every time. We're living through an AI revolution that will reshape everything, yet we cannot know exactly how or when. The solution isn't better predictions, it's better preparation. A solid financial plan with appropriate asset allocation, a margin of safety, and the discipline to stay invested remains your best defence against an unknowable future.
The Permanent Condition
Uncertainty isn't new, it's the permanent condition of investing. The headlines change, the crises evolve, but the fundamental truth remains: we cannot predict, but we can prepare.
Those who stayed invested through April's anxiety have been rewarded. Those who will stay invested through next year's inevitable turbulence will likely say the same thing in December 2026.
A Time for Gratitude
As I reflect on another year of writing, research, and market commentary, I'm grateful for the readers who engage thoughtfully with these ideas. Whether you're a long-time follower or stumbled across this column recently, thank you for your time and attention.
My aim has always been to cut through the noise and shine a light on the principles that actually matter when it comes to building and protecting wealth. If these weekly reflections have helped you think more clearly about your financial future, make smarter decisions with your capital, or simply feel more confident staying the course during turbulent times, then the effort has been worthwhile.
Safe Travels!
To those of you travelling nationally or abroad over the holiday period, safe travels. To those staying home, enjoy the slower pace and time with loved ones. Whatever your plans, I hope you find moments of rest and renewal.
As for me, I'll be stepping away from the keyboard for two weeks to recharge. Our first article of 2026 will land on 10 January as we look forward to the year ahead. Until then, this will be my last dispatch for 2025.
Whatever 2026 has in store, we'll navigate it together.
See you in the new year.
Nick Stewart
(Ngāi Tahu, Ngāti Huirapa, Ngāti Māmoe, Ngāti Waitaha)
Financial Adviser and CEO at Stewart Group
Stewart Group is a Hawke's Bay and Wellington based CEFEX & BCorp certified financial planning and advisory firm providing personal fiduciary services, Wealth Management, Risk Insurance & KiwiSaver scheme solutions.
The information provided, or any opinions expressed in this article, are of a general nature only and should not be construed or relied on as a recommendation to invest in a financial product or class of financial products. You should seek financial advice specific to your circumstances from a Financial Adviser before making any financial decisions. A disclosure statement can be obtained free of charge by calling 0800 878 961 or visit our website, www.stewartgroup.co.nz
Article no. 438